This study evaluates changes in the sensitivity of radial growth of Quercus robur to water balance, assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), in stands located within the Supiy River valley (Kyiv Region, Ukraine) in relation to the dam destruction in 1941 and the subsequent construction of a drainage network in the floodplain. Two valley stands were investigated: Tashan Park (TAS), situated downstream of the former dam site, and Zgurivka Dendropark (ZGU), located upstream. Two extra-valley sites, Bykivnia Forest (BYK) and Feofaniya Park (FEO), were used as the regional reference (REF) sites. The study period was divided into two intervals: before hydrological alterations (1910–1940) and after the completion of major drainage works (1962–2015); 1941–1961 were excluded from the analysis. Statistical modeling revealed a pronounced shift in moisture sensitivity of Q. robur within the Supiy valley: at TAS, the previously negative relationship between growth and March SPEI3 became positive after 1961, while the positive relationship with July SPEI3 observed before 1941 shifted to negative. In contrast, ZGU exhibited only weak changes in sensitivity, and the regional reference chronology (REF) maintained a consistently positive response to SPEI throughout the study period. These findings indicate a localized shift in hydroclimatic controls on tree growth within the river valley, particularly downstream of the dam site. The complex interaction of hydrological alterations, water management practices, small-stream regulation, and ongoing climate change complicates the prediction of ecological consequences of dam destruction and drainage works without empirical evidence from comparable settings.

Keywords: climate sensitivity, pedunculate oak, riparian forests, SPEI, statistical modeling, tree rings

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